McClanahan (2026) From expansion to overshoot: Policy risks in managing offshore fisheries expansion Marine Policy
This study shows that bottom-associated (benthic) ecosystems provide some of the most productive and stable foundations for fisheries, compared to more variable offshore pelagic systems. Benthic production is typically higher and more reliable because it is supported by local nutrient recycling, seabed–water interactions and long-lived food webs that buffer environmental fluctuations. The paper warns that shifting fishing effort offshore and towards pelagic resources—often promoted as an alternative—can lead to unstable catches, higher economic risk and ecological overshoot. In contrast, fisheries linked to healthy benthic ecosystems tend to support more predictable yields, greater gear diversity and stronger coastal livelihoods. Overall, the study suggests that maintaining access to productive benthic fishing grounds and managing them sustainably is a more resilient strategy than encouraging pelagic expansion, particularly in the face of climate change and growing spatial pressures
