Wilson et al (2025) Seafloor marine heatwaves outpace surface events in the future on the northwestern European shelf Open Science
This study provides the first high-resolution projections of future marine heatwaves at both the sea surface and seafloor across the northwestern European shelf. The authors show that marine heatwaves are projected to increase dramatically throughout the 21st century. Crucially, heatwaves are projected to increase in frequency more strongly at the seafloor than at the sea surface, despite lower absolute warming at depth. This pattern arises because seafloor temperatures exhibit lower natural variability, meaning smaller increases in temperature are sufficient to exceed heatwave thresholds. The results indicate that assessments based solely on sea surface temperatures are likely to underestimate future climate risks for benthic habitats and bottom-associated species, with important implications for fisheries and seabed management
